US, renewables, electrification to shape 2040 energy system

US oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly rise

Oil will continue growing as a source of energy for over two decades, with the USA set to become the undisputed leader in crude and gas production, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

"Crude prices dropped dramatically after the IEA forecast a gloomy outlook for the near future".

Oil inventories in the world's richest nations fell by 40 million barrels in September, breaking below 3.0 billion barrels for the first time in two years, driven in part by Hurricane Harvey, which shuttered much USA refining capacity in August.

"Alongside an ever-expanding global population and the critical importance of reducing energy poverty, these growth rates mean energy demand is expected to increase by close to 100 million barrels of oil equivalent a day between 2015 and 2040", Barkindo said.

In 2025, global oil demand is expected to increase by 7 percent and reach 100.3 million barrels per day, which is 2.1 barrels more than forecast previous year.

"Using a scenario whereby current levels of Opec [Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] production are maintained, the oil market faces a hard challenge in 1Q18 with supply expected to exceed demand by 0.6m bpd followed by another, smaller, surplus of 0.2m bpd in 2Q18". Meanwhile, US government data showed that production climbed to a fresh record.

"Overall, the report is somewhat supportive because it was not as bearish as the previous API report last night - that is why we are slowly digging our way out of the downside seen earlier this morning", said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

US, renewables, electrification to shape 2040 energy system

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said "the US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for global market dynamics".

The IEA said non-OPEC production would rise 1.4 million bpd in 2018, undermining efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers to limit global crude supplies and support prices.

Analysts said rising US stockpile combined with downbeat global demand outlook renewed investors' concern about lingering global glut.

Meanwhile, the the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has yet to show it has convinced Russian Federation, one of its partners in the deal, that a decision to prolong output cuts is needed when the group meets in Vienna this month.

United States oil production has already increased by more than 14% since mid-2016 to 9.62 million bpd and is expected to grow further.

"This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to today's global demand", the IEA said in its report.

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